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Am I a Target? Weekly Feature · Saturday, 26 September 2026

 

Monadnock Cyber
Am I a Target?
Weekly Feature · Saturday, 26 September 2026 · At the intersection of AI and Security

Ransomware attacks rarely occur without warning, and organizations can identify threats by examining the software they run and their already-leaked credentials. Our data indicates an overlap of 6 domains (~3 real, *low reliability*) between ransomware victims and company exposure domains. It is likely that the time-to-exploit has decreased, given the time-to-exploit has decreased to ~-1 day (Google Threat Intelligence Group, high reliability).

  • The software you run: 33% of initial infections occur through exploiting vulnerabilities (Mandiant M-Trends 2025, high reliability). This highlights the importance of keeping software up-to-date and patching vulnerabilities promptly. Our own data shows that there are ~20,584 company exposure domains, but the ingest-batched timestamps limit our ability to provide reliable lead-time information.
  • Your leaked credentials: 54% of ransomware victims had infostealer logs containing their domain credentials before the attack (Verizon 2025 DBIR, high reliability). This emphasizes the need for organizations to monitor their credentials and respond quickly to breaches. Specifically, 40% of ransomware victims had corporate-email credentials stolen, and 88% of web-application attacks used stolen credentials (Verizon 2025 DBIR).
  • The time-to-exploit has decreased substantially, with Google Threat Intelligence Group reporting a decrease from 63 days (2018) to 5 days (2023) to ~-1 day (2024). It is very likely that stolen credentials will be used in an attack, given that they reach criminal markets in ~48h (Constella, moderate reliability).

The fact that 22% of breaches used stolen credentials as the initial-access vector (Verizon 2025 DBIR, high reliability) further emphasizes the need for swift action. It is very likely that an organization will face increased risk if they do not take proactive measures, with a high confidence level due to the convergence of data from high-reliability sources, including the 54% Verizon figure and the -1 day Google figure. This is an inference, based on the observed trends and data.

A credible alternative hypothesis is that an organization with robust, proactive defenses is likely to reduce their risk of a ransomware attack. Gaps in our data include limited visibility into dark web activity and incomplete vulnerability data, which prevent us from dismissing this alternative hypothesis entirely.

A CISO should take action by monitoring their organization's software and credentials for vulnerabilities and breaches. They should prioritize patching vulnerabilities and responding to confirmed-exploitation signals, such as CISA KEV. Given the current trends and data, it is almost certain that an organization's risk will increase without immediate attention to vulnerabilities and stolen credentials.

Sources
  • Verizon 2025 DBIR (HIGH)
  • Mandiant M-Trends 2025 (HIGH)
  • Google Threat Intelligence Group (HIGH)
  • Constella (MODERATE)
CYFIRMA (MODERATE)
  • Gambit Security (MODERATE)
✓ Prepared on Monadnock infrastructure. Authored by the local engine llama3.3:70b and cross-checked by local engines (gemma3:27b, llama3.3:70b, gemma4:31b); ICD-203 lexicon enforced by a deterministic gate (CLEAN). No third-party cloud. Statistics carry their sources inline.
Monadnock Cyber LLC · At the intersection of AI and Security

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